I will try to provide my point of view, with some really BASIC mathematics (unfortunately I suck at mathematics), to argue WHY Microsoft does not have ANY benefit from releasing Bethesda’s IPs to PS5.
Let’s start with the argument that some people make about “the install base that cannot be ignored”. PS5 has NO install base at this point. We are not talking about current-gen. We are talking about a totally new generation, that starts from 0, for both of them. Releasing these games exclusively to the Xbox ecosystem will give a great incentive for millions of players to buy an Xbox console (either as their primary system or not). More players moving to Xbox means greater profits all around for Microsoft.
Now let’s say that Microsoft releases these games to PS5, for 80€ per unit (that’s the new price here in Europe for PS5 games). Sony will get a 30% cut from each sale. As a result, Microsoft will earn 56€ per unit. Now, let’s say that this game sells 1 million units to PS5. Microsoft will earn 56€ million. That’s it. Microsoft will not earn any more money (except for additional content or microtransactions that the game might have or not). Let’s see what happens if this game is coming exclusively to the Xbox ecosystem though.
Most likely, users that are NOT part of the Xbox ecosystem, will want to play the game. Consequently, they will either buy the game on the Windows store or buy a GamePass subscription on PC, or buy an Xbox console with the aforementioned game, or buy an Xbox console and a GamePass subscription. Users coming into the Xbox ecosystem will surely become invested in it. Let’s do the math here though.
Xbox consoles
Xbox Series S + Bethesda Game (70€) = 370€
Xbox Series X + Bethesda Game (70€) = 570€
Xbox Series S + Bethesda Game (70€) + 1 month of Xbox GamePass (10€) = 380€
Xbox Series X + Bethesda Game (70€) + 1 month of Xbox GamePass (10€) = 580€
These are just SOME of the possible scenarios that someone starts investing in the Xbox ecosystem. Long-term profits for Microsoft from hardware sales, software sales, and subscriptions per month? Billions of euros.
In my opinion, it’s really basic mathematics that PROVES why Microsoft’s best interest is to keep these games exclusive to their ecosystem. I don’t understand how some “journalists” insist that Microsoft NEEDS to release this content to other platforms. Do they even think about business strategies and economics? I don’t know to be honest. I might be missing something in my analysis that they don’t. Who knows…