Video Game Market Analysis Thread

[Kals_Els]

@Jorge_Alexander_Acos

…tors when ACTI is under Xbox’s roof such as how much impact will have its revenue considering gamepass and Xbox now taking %100 sales from the console, Nintendo…etc. But in a “best” currently Xbox would be making between $23billion to $25Billion in revenue. Do you think their plans are enough to reach those goals or they will go the “more acquisition” route? I think with ports coming to Ninty, start receiving the PS money, the mobile APP and money from mobile stores, their PC and cloud plans are enough to help them achieve their objective or at least being really close to that, but what do I know. For context: Tencent makes around $27 billion to more than $30 billion on revenue and PS always $20billion + with $25billione being their highest and the want to made $30billion this fiscal year.

I think with Apple opening their store up for console games, Microsoft would be able to bring some of their games to mobile(like we learned they were looking into when app denied game pass, before denying porting over games.) even if they can’t get game pass on their ecosystem, this will increase the source of revenue in mobile they will get from King. Throw in Android when available and they should be at their goal if not exceed it by 2030 with PC/Consoles/Mobile/Streaming combo.

Although thinking about it, Tencent will likely start doing something similar to increase their revenue as well. Microsoft would need to make a couple of more acquisitions to make sure.

[Jorge_Alexander_Acos]

@Kals_Els

I think with Apple opening their store up for console games, Microsoft would be able to bring some of their games to mobile(like we learned they were looking into when app denied game pass, before denying porting over games.) even if they can’t get game pass on their ecosystem, this will increase the source of revenue in mobile they will get from King. Throw in Android when available and they should be at their goal if not exceed it by 2030 with PC/Consoles/Mobile/Streaming combo.

Although thinking about it, Tencent will likely start doing something similar to increase their revenue as well. Microsoft would need to make a couple of more acquisitions to make sure.

It will be interesting to see what comes from Apple’s new (freaking expensive) iPhones. If its just those games they announced in their conference with a couple of ports over the years coming or if Apple will fully commit to create a gaming community because I could see 2 things happening:

1. EU commission makes Apple and Google open their app stores and now MS is freely able to put the app they are creating with the full support of the Xbox ecosystem, that means you can buy and stream your games there, achievements, clips, gamepass if you want to subscribe instead of buying your games…etc. That is how I think MS sees Xbox’s future, as an App that will be everywhere but this will only work in EU .

2. Those changes don’t come to the US and Microsoft instead goes for porting some of their games to the new iPhone but this depends in how good the new iPhone manages to create a AAA gaming community there.

As for Tencent. I think they will partner with MS and bring all ABK content to China again as they were the ones supporting the acquisition to the SAMR while Netease was doing their possible to block it. That could also lead to another huge increase of revenue to Xbox and who know…maybe this partnership could help MS bringing more of their games to China? But thats another story.

[Kals_Els]

@Jorge_Alexander_Acos

… games there, achievements, clips, gamepass if you want to subscribe instead of buying your games…etc. That is how I think MS sees Xbox’s future, as an App that will be everywhere but this will only work in EU .

Those changes don’t come to the US and Microsoft instead goes for porting some of their games to the new iPhone but this depends in how good the new iPhone manages to create a AAA gaming community there.

As for Tencent. I think they will partner with MS and bring all ABK content to China again as they were the ones supporting the acquisition to the SAMR while Netease was doing their possible to block it. That could also lead to another huge increase of revenue to Xbox and who know…maybe this partnership could help MS bringing more of their games to China? But thats another story.

I think Apple will try to create a community because of Apple Arcade. Gaming already does some good numbers for them on mobile, and with the announcement of their phone they also said that games like REmake4 would also be available on their other devices, which could lead to more sales of games from outside Steam on Mac.

[MJ_INC]

@Jorge_Alexander_Acos

…s under Xbox’s roof such as how much impact will have its revenue considering gamepass and Xbox now taking %100 sales from the console, Nintendo…etc. But in a “best” scenario, currently Xbox would be making between $23billion to $25Billion+ in revenue. Do you think their plans are enough to reach those goals or they will go the “more acquisition” route? I think with ports coming to Ninty, start receiving the PS money, the mobile APP and money from mobile stores, their PC and cloud plans are enough to help them achieve their objective or at least being really close to that, but what do I know. For context: Tencent makes around $27 billion+ to more than $30 billion on revenue and PS always $20billion + with $26billions+ being their highest and the want to made $30billions + this fiscal year.

There was a financial forecasts within ABK’s year end results either the last year or the year before that where they estimate their earnings to be $12bn within five years. So if xbox and the studios they own can continue to grow it is a possibility

[FacelessSamurai]

@Jorge_Alexander_Acos

… games there, achievements, clips, gamepass if you want to subscribe instead of buying your games…etc. That is how I think MS sees Xbox’s future, as an App that will be everywhere but this will only work in EU .

Those changes don’t come to the US and Microsoft instead goes for porting some of their games to the new iPhone but this depends in how good the new iPhone manages to create a AAA gaming community there.

As for Tencent. I think they will partner with MS and bring all ABK content to China again as they were the ones supporting the acquisition to the SAMR while Netease was doing their possible to block it. That could also lead to another huge increase of revenue to Xbox and who know…maybe this partnership could help MS bringing more of their games to China? But thats another story.

MS has to figure out something with a Chinese partner as they are a huge population of gamers and that must be a huge revenue loss for ABK. All those WOW and Overwatch players gone must have had its toll. I think losing Overwatch over there probably had a huge impact on the Overwatch League itself (which after coming back from the grand finals last week I’d hope MS would step in and save).

As for mobile market, when we saw the leaks of MS timeline with Arm being looked at, I was kinda hoping they could make it work as the core of their next Gen systems. Imagine having their development tools support last gen (Series S/X) along with PC, next gen Xbox, and mobile! Would be a huge opportunity for them to be able to down port all titles to iPhones and possibly Android in the future and open up a huge revenue stream as well as good developer support as who in their right mind wouldn’t want to get a slice of that pie.

I just don’t know how feasible it would be to keep BC with previous systems by going that route. Apple made it happen and I was quite surprised to see how well Ruse of the Tomb Raider ran even on an M1 MacBook Air so I guess anything is possible.

[Vivir]

*”Paradox Interactive has today decided to write down capitalized development costs for the game The Lamplighters League, in addition to the regular degressive amortization done during the game’s first three months. Overall, this will result in that all of the game’s capitalized development costs of MSEK 320 will be recognized as costs in the fourth quarter of 2023. The game’s impact on profit before tax for the fourth quarter is estimated to MSEK -248. The write-down stems from a revised sales forecast, which was established after the game’s release.”

“The Lamplighters League is a fun game with many strengths. Even though we see cautiously positive player numbers in subscription services, the commercial reception has been too weak, which is frankly a big disappointment. Game projects are by their nature always risky, but at the end of the day we haven’t performed at the level we should. It is painful but makes us more eager to roll up our sleeves and do better,” says Fredrik Wester, CEO of Paradox Interactive.”*

Paradox Interactive writes down MSEK 171 of capitalized development cost for...

[Zip]

@Vivir

…is will result in that all of the game’s capitalized development costs of MSEK 320 will be recognized as costs in the fourth quarter of 2023. The game’s impact on profit before tax for the fourth quarter is estimated to MSEK -248. The write-down stems from a revised sales forecast, which was established after the game’s release.” “The Lamplighters League is a fun game with many strengths. Even though we see cautiously positive player numbers in subscription services, the commercial reception has been too weak, which is frankly a big disappointment. Game projects are by their nature always risky, but at the end of the day we haven’t performed at the level we should. It is painful but makes us more eager to roll up our sleeves and do better,” says Fredrik Wester, CEO of Paradox Interactive.”*

As nearly as I can tell, SEK is Swedish Krona, and I think the M designates millions, and converted 171 million Krona writedown is about 15.7 Million USD. Full development seems to have been around 30 million based on the mention of 320 MSEK.

[Bleedorang3]

@Kals_Els

I think Apple will try to create a community because of Apple Arcade. Gaming already does some good numbers for them on mobile, and with the announcement of their phone they also said that games like REmake4 would also be available on their other devices, which could lead to more sales of games from outside Steam on Mac.

I think it’s highly likely Apple and Sony partner up (if they haven’t already). Their interests align so well. Apple wants content for Apple Arcade and their VR Headset and Sony wants to crack into the mobile market. If that happens it’ll be tough for MSFT to compete well if DMA-style legislation doesn’t hit the US market.

[Vivir]

PS fans showed out for BG3. Insane numbers for FC, that’s only 2 days of sales lol.

[euV2]

@Vivir

…IMG_7625887×730 59.9 KB PS fans showed out for BG3. Insane numbers for FC, that’s only 2 days of sales lol.

Europe is FIFA and by extension PS land. The two go hand in hand. I have a feeling that MK1 is not performing particularly well.

[BadNews]

@Vivir

…IMG_7625887×730 59.9 KB PS fans showed out for BG3. Insane numbers for FC, that’s only 2 days of sales lol.

Beating out Madden even though Madden sales are front loaded is still insane. Also to beat Mortal Kombat is huge too, but I guess tricky thing is the other games have physical versions, but still very impressive numbers

[saintsflow20]

Famitsu Software Sales

01./00. [NSW] Detective Pikachu Returns (Pokemon Co.) {2023.10.06} (¥5.980) - 85.639 / NEW

02./00. [NSW] Jinsei Game for Nintendo Switch (Takara Tomy) {2023.10.06} (¥6.000) - 30.267 / NEW

03./00. [PS5] Assassin’s Creed: Mirage (Ubisoft) {2023.10.05} (¥6.000) - 20.407 / NEW

04./05. [NSW] Pikmin 4 (Nintendo) {2023.07.21} (¥5.980) - 15.748 / 898.284 (-14%)

05./00. [PS5] Sword Art Online: Last Recollection # (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2023.10.05} (¥7.700) - 11.740 / NEW

06./00. [PS4] Sword Art Online: Last Recollection # (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2023.10.05} (¥7.700) - 8.554 / NEW

07./00. [PS4] Assassin’s Creed: Mirage (Ubisoft) {2023.10.05} (¥6.000) - 8.029 / NEW

08./15. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 7.491 / 5.508.702 (+0%)

09./14. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet / Violet # (Pokemon Co.) {2022.11.18} (¥5.980) - 6.571 / 5.151.441 (-14%)

10./06. [NSW] EA Sports FC 24 (Electronic Arts) {2023.09.29} (¥6.091) - 6.004 / 22.489 (-64%)

Hardware Sales

Switch – 110.241 (30.882.161)

PlayStation 5 – 33.754 (4.488.683)

PlayStation 4 – 1.020 (9.471.263)

Xbox Series X|S – 995 (513.062)

3DS – 21 (24.600.432)

////

Both PS5 and Xbox fell this week while Switch had a bit of a surge. There is big software like Mario Wonder on the way, and I think a new OLED design? So I’m not surprised to see a boost.

Detective Pikachu, despite bad reception, still had a decent opening. This is just simply an IP that is too big for bad reception to damper it badly. Also the game is packaged with an exclusive trading card… So people who Gotta Catch Em All can’t resist!

Jinsei Game = “The Game of Life” (the board game). Nice to see a video game version open pretty good.

AC Mirage is doing about how most Western AAAs do in Japan nowadays. I expect similar results for MW3, prob a bit higher.

Very bad result for Sword Art Online, which is expected really. It’s a game produced by the multi billion dollar Bamco and has early PS3 level production values in all the bad ways. Very typical Bamco licensed junk. It was nice to see Koei Tecmo show them how it’s done with licensed games last week with Fate Samurai/Remnant. And would you believe it skipped Switch? Another curse of “our game will look more powerful if it’s not on Switch.”, not that I think being on there would have boosted it much, game sux.

Now this wouldn’t be showing up in this week’s chart (not that I expect it to show up next week), but there -is- actually a physical release of Forza Motorsport in Japan

https://twitter.com/karin19970919/status/1712281403134759155/photo/1

There was not a physical release for Starfield, so it looks like XGS will continue outputting physically there, but Bethesda pulled out. I think this and Minecraft Legends were the only physical Xbox games released in Japan this year.

[spyteam]

In Japan:
Amazon listing XSX Forza bundle for 5,000yen expensive than separately.
further price hike is likely incoming, putting it in same price range as the PS5 Slim.

Sony reveals new PS5 models and prices

De facto price increase in Japan (again) weak yen and LDP politics have caused PS5 will continue to sell well. https://twitter.com/genki_jpn/status/1711882322696679806 edit: Japanese Amazon listing suggests that the Xbox Series X may be price hike in Japan at same time. A price increase for not new model would definitely give a sell worse sadly

https://twitter.com/Kuraris_plus/status/1712462462627553697

[spyteam]

@spyteam

In Japan:
Amazon listing XSX Forza bundle for 5,000yen expensive than separately.
further price hike is likely incoming, putting it in same price range as the PS5 Slim.

Looks like won’t be raising prices after all.
and XSS Game Pass bundle will also be available in Japan. they can keep the price lower than PS5, could be Xbox sales will small boost

[Kals_Els]

@spyteam

… Looks like won’t be raising prices after all. and XSS Game Pass bundle will also be available in Japan. they can keep the price lower than PS5, could be Xbox sales will small boost IMG_20061170×1531 242 KB

I always thought that bundled consoles cost more than non bundled, since there’s a game with it.

[Vivir]

Starfield was the best-selling game of September, instantly becoming the 7th best-selling game of 2023 year-to-date. Starfield ranked as the best-selling title of the month across both Xbox and PC, with PC being its lead sales platform.

Video game hardware spending fell 8% when compared to a year ago, to $451 million. Single-digit percentage growth in consumer spending on Xbox Series hardware was offset by declines across both PlayStation 5 and Switch.

PlayStation 5 remained the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales during September 2023, with Xbox Series again ranking 2nd across both measures.

The PS5 Dual Sense Wireless Controller – Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 Limited Edition was the best-selling accessory of the month in consumer spending.

courtesy of the great https://x.com/MatPiscatella?s=20

[TheAshCohen09]

@Vivir

…-selling game of September, instantly becoming the 7th best-selling game of 2023 year-to-date. Starfield ranked as the best-selling title of the month across both Xbox and PC, with PC being its lead sales platform. Video game hardware spending fell 8% when compared to a year ago, to $451 million. Single-digit percentage growth in consumer spending on Xbox Series hardware was offset by declines across both PlayStation 5 and Switch. PlayStation 5 remained the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales during September 2023, with Xbox Series again ranking 2nd across both measures. The PS5 Dual Sense Wireless Controller – Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 Limited Edition was the best-selling accessory of the month in consumer spending. courtesy of the great https://x.com/MatPiscatella?s=20

That’s pretty good given it’s on Game Pass and only on Xbox/PC

[saintsflow20]

@Vivir

…-selling game of September, instantly becoming the 7th best-selling game of 2023 year-to-date. Starfield ranked as the best-selling title of the month across both Xbox and PC, with PC being its lead sales platform. Video game hardware spending fell 8% when compared to a year ago, to $451 million. Single-digit percentage growth in consumer spending on Xbox Series hardware was offset by declines across both PlayStation 5 and Switch. PlayStation 5 remained the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales during September 2023, with Xbox Series again ranking 2nd across both measures. The PS5 Dual Sense Wireless Controller – Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 Limited Edition was the best-selling accessory of the month in consumer spending. courtesy of the great https://x.com/MatPiscatella?s=20

Shows the irrelevancy of social media arguing and the games media itself. All that discourse, even with a thread dedicated to it here, and the game is one of the best selling of the whole year.

[Kals_Els]

@Vivir

…-selling game of September, instantly becoming the 7th best-selling game of 2023 year-to-date. Starfield ranked as the best-selling title of the month across both Xbox and PC, with PC being its lead sales platform. Video game hardware spending fell 8% when compared to a year ago, to $451 million. Single-digit percentage growth in consumer spending on Xbox Series hardware was offset by declines across both PlayStation 5 and Switch. PlayStation 5 remained the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales during September 2023, with Xbox Series again ranking 2nd across both measures. The PS5 Dual Sense Wireless Controller – Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 Limited Edition was the best-selling accessory of the month in consumer spending. courtesy of the great https://x.com/MatPiscatella?s=20

That’s kind of wild, Starfield is on game pass so I didn’t expect it would sell so well.

[Vivir]

@TheAshCohen09

That’s pretty good given it’s on Game Pass and only on Xbox/PC

Yep. I believe it’s Xbox’s first time debuting #1 on the monthly sales chart.

FH5 debuted at #5 and Halo Infinite debuted at #2.

Halo Infinite dropped to #18 the following month. FH5 dropped to #16 during its following month as well. I expect Starfield to have stronger legs than those 2 on the sales chart.

Pheromonal launch for Starfield.