Feels good to be back 
In honor of that, I think Xbox should go out and make an acquisition to test out the servers today 
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Indiana Jones, and maybe even the rumoured Planet of the Apes game, compared to Sony’s Marvel games is a bit of an indicator of how out of touch MS will be if they haven’t bothered to secure a superhero game.
The commericial appeal of a superhero game will drive gamepass subs far more than Indiana Jones games.
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MS has to get WB studios with our without IPs. MK IP probably will happen, other IPs that are not DC related probably won’t happen.
As I mentioned before, despite me understainding the reasons why MS doesn’t want to make superhero games (because they don’t own IPs), I still believe that they crippled themselves with that move. They want to become Netflix for sure, and while Netflix is successful, I do think that Disney will overtake them simply because they have big mind share and legendary IPs. I don’t follow Netflix, but I wonder if it stagnates already or not.
Bethesda’s purchase certainly seems like that MS is aware that IPs are important, but them disregarding third party IPs like Star Wars (I mean, I am still salty about KOTOR), Marvel’s stuff and so is also a sign that they kinda out of touch with media outside gaming. And people who are saying that Marvel’s IPs are not important and only “home grown” IPs matter, should look at Netflix vs Disney.
MS should buy more and more legendary IPs. If they don’t want to go into movies, that’s fine but looking at how all other platform holders do - Google aside - each and every of them are into cross media IPs with games and movies. MS also does that, though not that much successfully for now.
If PS pivots to PS Now (more resources, better coverage etc.), Game Pass will be overtaken overnight. In USA it depends, but outside USA 100%. MS & Xbox are just not there yet, so they should buy more and more, do more “needle move” moves and so on.
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I don’t think Disney will overtake Netflix. Netflix is so so far ahead in terms of localization and content aimed specifically at so many different parts of the world and that’s a major reason they are so far ahead. As they continue they will just have more and more original content aimed at all these different world areas so it would be very hard to ever catch them.
This is one of the reason I think Xbox should invest immediately in studios in India, Brazil/Argentina, Africa and South Korea. They would have a significant first mover advantage.
Disney is already more than half of Netflix, despite running for how long? 1 or 2 years? I believe that Disney will overtake Netflix. You can make a lot of IPs at home, but Disney will literally ride on Star Wars.
Disney is also not bad with localization. Keep in mind that Disney is also a household name across the world since the old days. If Sony takes PS Now seriously (make its own PS One or whatever with 15$ price), Game Pass will be overtaken relatively fast.
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You’re minimizing the amount of resources Microsoft has already allocated. It would take years for Sony to match the service currently offered with Gamepass - in infrastructure for sure. Also, while the IPs might be slanted more heavily towards Sony (for now), that’s discounting upcoming MS/Zenimax first party titles. Sure Microsoft doesn’t have Spiderman, but they’ll have Starfield. Sure they don’t have TLoU, but they have Forza Horizon 5. Sure they don’t have God of War, but the have Hellblade II. It doesn’t have to be apples to apples, but they’re quickly closing the gaps on the number of first party (or exclusive) titles, and once both companies are boasting top end offerings, Gamepass tips the scale in Microsoft’s favor. Now Microsoft needs to focus on localization and advertising globally.
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Disney offers significantly less content at a significantly lower price than Netflix. I don’t think it’s fair to compare subscriber numbers directly.
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The thing about Spider-man is that it is cross media IPs. The label of “Spider-man console” will bring a lot of mind share to Playstation (it already has huge mind share advantage). Starfield in that regard weaker cross media wise, so it cannot attract people not knowing what gaming is. Spider-man is effectively a childhood hero too, so for a lot of children it is gonna be “Spider man console”.
I am not sure that GoW and Hellablade 2 are in the same league.
I personally set the deadline for MS to the end for 2023 to see if their bets pay off or not
I hoped that they will reach 30m by the end of this year. Still hope, but we’ll see.
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If PS pivots to putting their games day one on PS Now, and puts as much money into cycling third parties through the service, yes it could overtake Game Pass; that’s basic logic as Playstation has a bigger install base. Overnight, probably not, but in time, for sure.
But they are dedicated to PS Now being a service for their own games only when they believe they have sold all they can sell, and even then don’t commit to keeping them in the service for good. A service along those lines can have all the marketing thrown at it they want, it’s not got the same appeal.
FH4 had around 20m by 2021 right?
I am not sure that Sony really needs that much third parties there as they have a lot of system sellers (subscription sellers). MS doesn’t have that many. Let’s see what Halo and FH5 will do for Game Pass.
After Xbox One era, only FH remains that strong. Let’s see of Halo Infinite will bring Halo to Xbox 360 glory (probably not due to small Xbox mind share across the world). In USA it is a high possibility though.
But you accept that PS Now will never offer much competition to Game Pass unless Sony decides to put their games day and date into the service?
“Remember that game you paid us $70 for two years ago? Now it’s in PS Now” is not a great marketing slogan.
EDIT: And MS are just getting started when it comes to first party software.
Halo Infinite and FH5 at the end of this year adding to Flight Simulator, Psychonauts 2, all the Gears games, Halo MCC, Sea of Thieves, the Ori games, the Outer Worlds, Wasteland 3 and the entire back catalogue of BGS, ID, Arkane, Tango and MachineGames titles – those are all in Game Pass for good and they are never cycling out.
Next year, Starifled, Redfall and Deathloop join the permanent library and that’s just the start of what the 23 studios are going to deliver.
EDIT EDIT (sorry): and yes, Sony is still going to need to up the third parties in PS Now. Their first-party games are well received, but we’re talking 2-4 games a year. You can’t run a service on that alone, you need a continual flow of new games all the time.
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i mean, FH4 reached almost 25 million players in November. racing games is popular and FH5 will be popular too 
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Maybe not, hard to say right now as PS Now for Sony is not the main core of their gaming division so they don’t develop it that much.
As I stated before - if MS won’t be able to reach 30m by the end of this year, then something is very wrong.
But we’re discussing your hypothetical here.
You suggested that all Sony needed to do was market PS Now more and it would ‘overnight’ take over Game Pass.
I’m trying to establish if you mean PS Now as it is now, or you accept that the service itself is offering nowhere near the value of Game Pass, and would need to change as well?
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I wonder if it could 30-40m if MS sold the same amount consoles as Playstation last gen.
Why? What are you basing that number on?
I never thought MS was hitting 30m by the end of the year. I have receipts for this in another thread. Based on the chip shortage, constrained console stock, and a lack of big new games, my position has been that 25m by the end of the year would be a solid result.
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That numbers almost a year old. Sea of Thieves added 10 million in 15 months. Between July 2020 and October 2021. FH4 has always done more and faster. I would guess it’s at least 35m now.
The only reason it won’t reach 50m is because FH5 is replacing it.
FH 5 will definitely reach 50m though.
Hypothetically we don’t know because Sony doesn’t put their first party games there, doesn’t develop PS Now, doesn’t improve it and so on. If Sony at least made it running PS5, it would already be better and had more subscribers than now.
I stated
which means more resources into PS Now, servers and so on. In its current form PS Now is better than Games with Gold, but that’s hardly an achievement 